* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 91 81 73 56 39 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 98 91 81 73 56 39 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 96 86 76 66 50 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 15 15 18 20 28 30 34 33 21 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 11 12 12 14 7 7 7 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 221 233 232 231 227 228 239 244 249 264 283 295 306 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.4 26.3 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 128 117 117 115 118 117 118 119 128 129 133 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 58 56 55 54 48 45 39 38 39 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 32 30 30 27 22 19 16 12 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 28 26 26 15 13 6 -7 -17 -15 -2 1 200 MB DIV 132 82 62 42 12 -2 4 -5 -21 -18 -34 -20 -25 700-850 TADV 12 11 12 8 11 12 24 3 0 -7 -12 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2007 2020 2037 2063 2094 2187 1952 1658 1333 1010 682 378 128 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.6 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.5 18.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.6 130.4 131.3 132.1 134.0 136.2 139.0 142.1 145.2 148.4 151.4 154.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -32. -38. -44. -48. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -27. -29. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -24. -32. -49. -66. -78. -86. -96.-100.-102.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.1 128.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 529.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##