* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 81 71 60 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 91 81 71 60 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 90 78 67 57 42 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 17 19 26 27 33 39 26 21 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 13 15 11 14 12 6 5 7 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 226 228 228 225 226 233 246 240 245 270 303 309 320 SST (C) 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 116 117 115 112 116 120 117 122 128 129 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 56 56 54 50 45 41 40 42 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 30 29 26 22 20 17 13 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 34 27 12 12 6 -12 -11 -27 -2 0 4 200 MB DIV 83 70 60 35 6 4 0 0 -17 -24 -19 -15 -18 700-850 TADV 13 13 13 12 6 24 9 13 -6 -5 -6 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 2020 2037 2060 2092 2128 2068 1804 1500 1154 821 504 193 107 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.5 131.3 132.2 133.0 135.1 137.6 140.5 143.8 147.0 150.1 153.3 156.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 13 15 15 15 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -31. -32. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -29. -40. -58. -72. -83. -94.-100.-102.-105.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.7 129.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##