* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 67 56 47 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 79 67 56 47 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 79 68 58 49 35 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 23 25 30 31 34 35 26 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 13 7 8 13 5 8 7 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 224 221 232 238 243 245 246 261 298 319 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 25.4 25.3 24.8 25.3 25.0 25.3 25.4 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 116 117 116 111 117 114 118 119 128 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 56 52 50 40 39 40 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 24 24 20 18 13 11 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 28 15 8 12 -2 -22 -22 -20 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 66 44 6 0 -5 4 -13 -15 -32 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 16 13 5 13 28 7 4 -5 1 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2029 2056 2087 2143 2177 1920 1636 1322 968 624 284 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.3 132.1 133.1 134.1 136.5 139.2 142.2 145.6 148.9 152.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -20. -26. -30. -31. -30. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -23. -34. -43. -60. -71. -84. -93. -97. -99.-100.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.4 130.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/04/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##