* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 64 54 44 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 75 64 54 44 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 75 65 55 47 34 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 24 26 30 31 40 33 26 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 11 8 14 7 7 5 3 4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 228 228 232 237 257 254 254 281 303 318 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.3 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 116 112 114 116 120 117 124 130 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 55 54 51 46 41 37 40 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 25 24 22 18 15 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 15 13 7 0 -18 -25 -28 -8 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 36 12 -1 3 -7 7 -11 -33 -20 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 14 3 10 24 3 7 -4 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2052 2091 2134 2178 2058 1773 1479 1154 793 440 114 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.1 18.7 18.7 19.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.1 133.0 134.1 135.2 137.9 140.7 143.8 147.3 150.7 153.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 16 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -18. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -21. -27. -30. -33. -31. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -31. -41. -57. -69. -81. -89. -92. -96. -97. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.0 131.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##