* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 32 27 23 18 18 18 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 32 27 23 18 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 39 35 31 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 9 6 5 7 9 13 12 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 -1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 332 319 329 334 11 303 315 308 308 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.1 24.7 24.1 24.2 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 135 134 131 123 108 101 103 97 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 56 53 49 42 37 33 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -5 -4 -17 -19 -18 -21 -18 -24 -28 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 74 64 46 38 34 -11 -26 -12 -19 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 11 4 1 1 3 5 0 2 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 1026 1075 1080 1090 1098 1100 1114 1148 1198 1249 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.3 19.2 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.8 117.8 118.5 119.2 120.3 121.1 121.8 122.9 124.0 125.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 115.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##