* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 24 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 32 35 36 33 30 23 18 19 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 263 271 286 291 300 302 299 297 320 324 316 317 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 125 126 125 129 130 132 139 142 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 36 33 35 35 34 37 37 37 39 41 41 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -1 -4 -12 -5 -18 -15 -13 -23 -29 -16 -6 200 MB DIV -5 -23 -18 -30 -33 -29 -18 -17 4 -5 2 -14 14 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -9 -10 -3 0 2 4 3 -2 -1 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1405 1260 1136 1013 887 614 364 130 31 232 324 448 629 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.2 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.9 144.1 145.3 146.5 149.1 151.5 153.9 156.1 158.1 159.8 161.4 163.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 3 4 10 21 43 36 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -24. -32. -36. -38. -38. -37. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 141.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##