* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 24 20 18 17 16 16 17 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 33 36 36 33 32 27 25 19 19 14 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -3 -4 -7 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 261 277 290 294 298 302 289 287 308 320 333 334 326 SST (C) 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 126 127 130 130 132 136 140 145 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 33 34 34 34 34 35 35 39 41 42 43 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 9 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 -4 -4 0 -3 -6 -7 -13 -19 -6 -3 4 200 MB DIV -19 -38 -35 -31 -50 -27 -32 -16 0 -14 -14 17 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -12 -4 -2 -4 2 0 -5 -1 -4 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 1230 1088 956 822 700 452 230 78 218 329 397 543 747 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.6 145.9 147.2 148.4 150.9 153.3 155.7 157.9 159.7 161.4 163.1 165.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 1 4 3 8 18 38 37 31 33 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -20. -27. -31. -34. -34. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.1 143.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##