* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 6 11 16 15 17 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 5 4 0 0 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 316 306 305 318 299 315 306 311 290 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 24.4 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.6 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 127 121 104 100 100 99 97 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 54 52 47 41 39 38 38 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -17 -13 -16 -24 -28 -37 -40 -48 -64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 33 39 51 54 -7 -26 -22 -14 -13 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 3 5 4 3 0 2 1 6 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1052 1061 1075 1068 1068 1087 1099 1110 1175 1263 1362 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.4 119.1 119.7 120.2 121.1 121.7 122.7 123.7 125.0 126.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -21. -26. -31. -36. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 117.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##