* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 12 15 19 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 3 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 313 306 282 282 306 296 294 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.0 24.4 24.0 24.0 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 119 111 104 100 101 96 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 51 48 47 39 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 10 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -21 -21 -36 -34 -35 -36 -39 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 33 34 21 11 -17 -28 -15 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 4 5 0 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 986 998 1015 1022 1033 1069 1073 1107 1206 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.4 119.9 120.3 120.7 121.5 122.3 123.4 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -22. -27. -32. -34. -35. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 118.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##