* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 23 23 24 25 27 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 31 31 30 28 25 21 28 21 18 17 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -5 -3 -4 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 295 294 295 294 292 296 303 307 333 337 358 330 326 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 142 142 141 140 144 148 152 156 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 30 30 31 31 31 36 39 45 49 53 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 7 10 10 24 5 -4 0 0 5 12 31 200 MB DIV -50 -70 -48 -28 -17 -3 7 -25 -2 -16 15 -1 1 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -3 -5 0 -2 0 0 2 -2 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 682 547 452 368 301 320 467 567 649 804 1011 1246 1523 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.8 150.4 151.8 153.2 154.5 157.1 159.6 161.8 163.9 165.9 168.2 170.5 173.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 11 11 22 22 27 28 27 37 58 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 148.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##