* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 12 16 17 20 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 1 1 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 304 284 282 294 298 300 288 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.4 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 106 101 99 99 99 92 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 45 44 39 34 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -27 -37 -36 -38 -39 -49 -51 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 32 26 5 -10 -22 -14 2 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 6 4 3 3 0 1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 975 985 999 1015 1032 1046 1069 1141 1237 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.8 120.3 120.7 121.1 121.9 122.8 124.1 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -36. -38. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 119.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##