* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032019 07/08/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 14 14 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 310 298 305 308 300 294 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.4 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 104 99 98 99 99 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 44 41 37 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -38 -33 -36 -33 -38 -49 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 12 6 -18 -16 -21 -13 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 4 4 2 3 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 972 990 1011 1027 1034 1048 1085 1165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.4 120.8 121.2 121.6 122.4 123.4 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 119.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032019 COSME 07/08/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032019 COSME 07/08/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##