* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS AL762019 07/08/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 17 19 21 26 30 38 42 49 49 51 48 V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 15 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 12 17 12 16 11 17 12 14 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 0 1 0 3 1 3 3 1 7 0 7 SHEAR DIR 302 328 356 325 354 10 11 19 20 16 350 314 315 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.4 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.4 29.5 30.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 166 163 156 139 152 165 170 159 168 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 138 133 130 127 116 127 139 150 134 141 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 10 11 8 7 11 7 11 6 10 5 10 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 58 56 56 57 57 63 61 57 54 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 10 11 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 38 55 35 17 16 9 -7 17 0 33 -10 -13 -39 200 MB DIV -9 4 11 -13 -13 17 8 63 7 42 -8 21 3 700-850 TADV -2 5 7 0 0 2 -2 3 5 4 3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) -281 -221 -174 -157 -161 -163 -126 -69 -29 -36 -103 -127 -180 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 32.7 32.2 31.8 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.2 82.9 82.9 83.0 83.4 84.6 86.1 87.8 89.5 91.3 92.9 94.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 3 1 4 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 25 25 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 9. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 6. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 23. 27. 34. 34. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 33.1 83.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL762019 GENESIS 07/08/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.2% 12.4% 5.3% 1.5% 7.7% 6.0% 24.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.1% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 2.6% 2.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL762019 GENESIS 07/08/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL762019 GENESIS 07/08/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 20 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT