* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022019 07/08/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 18 18 20 21 24 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 30 31 33 34 28 29 21 22 19 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 294 292 291 294 306 315 313 328 321 345 326 330 319 SST (C) 27.1 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 142 144 145 149 150 151 155 154 154 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 30 30 31 32 36 40 45 48 52 52 52 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 8 12 14 7 4 -1 -1 0 9 32 48 200 MB DIV -44 -47 -29 -25 -17 0 -23 -9 0 22 3 15 27 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -2 -4 0 -2 1 -4 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 397 310 301 354 439 609 660 777 945 1164 1413 1687 1961 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 152.6 154.3 155.8 157.2 158.6 161.0 163.1 165.1 167.1 169.5 172.0 174.7 177.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 11 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 12 23 30 35 31 28 37 53 45 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 152.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022019 BARBARA 07/08/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022019 BARBARA 07/08/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##