* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/10/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 51 59 61 67 66 64 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 51 59 61 67 52 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 46 48 40 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 18 20 21 17 25 18 30 20 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 2 0 0 4 2 1 0 -4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 9 34 5 5 6 352 346 329 314 304 280 281 351 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.3 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 168 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 144 143 146 153 158 162 157 154 146 143 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 10 7 10 7 9 7 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 62 63 59 57 54 55 49 54 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 14 17 20 23 22 26 24 23 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 4 -2 21 31 29 -11 18 -23 2 -38 29 200 MB DIV 40 53 16 15 38 39 25 4 38 47 42 -6 2 700-850 TADV -1 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 2 4 -6 -2 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 220 210 195 184 182 178 137 135 61 -45 -167 -269 -384 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.4 29.2 30.2 31.3 32.2 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.1 88.5 88.9 90.2 91.1 92.0 93.1 93.4 93.2 93.7 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 46 46 48 39 38 34 41 6 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 11. 16. 14. 12. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 34. 36. 42. 41. 39. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.3 87.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.0% 13.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 24.2% 14.0% 5.5% 2.1% 9.4% 17.5% 12.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 15.4% 9.4% 4.6% 0.7% 3.2% 10.3% 4.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/10/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 43 51 59 61 67 52 36 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 47 55 57 63 48 32 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 40 48 50 56 41 25 19 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 29 37 39 45 30 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT