* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/11/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 52 55 50 50 46 44 39 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 47 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 20 16 21 22 33 24 27 8 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 7 4 5 3 2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 17 18 5 6 8 334 330 309 285 296 288 318 323 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 168 169 169 162 165 161 158 157 158 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 141 144 141 135 138 133 128 127 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 7 9 7 10 6 8 4 8 3 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 59 55 58 56 57 51 53 52 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 22 24 26 21 22 19 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 38 41 41 38 -8 1 -46 -21 -96 -45 -89 -35 200 MB DIV 34 67 35 20 35 7 15 15 64 25 17 21 12 700-850 TADV -6 -3 1 0 -8 6 0 -2 0 1 4 9 12 LAND (KM) 147 128 118 94 83 26 -34 -167 -321 -438 -534 -656 -792 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 29.1 30.0 31.3 32.9 34.1 35.1 36.3 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.3 89.7 90.1 90.5 91.2 91.6 91.8 91.8 91.7 91.3 90.3 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 37 34 34 33 8 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 1. 1. -3. -6. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 15. 15. 11. 9. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.8 89.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/11/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.8% 13.3% 8.6% 8.1% 10.2% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 2.4% 4.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.1% 6.0% 3.3% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/11/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/11/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 48 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 48 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 42 30 21 18 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT