* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042019 07/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 40 41 40 36 33 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 40 41 40 36 33 30 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 39 40 38 35 31 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 20 19 19 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 56 55 68 78 102 118 146 159 204 244 257 270 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.0 25.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 153 151 143 138 129 124 119 114 116 123 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 68 61 57 54 49 50 44 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 79 72 64 52 51 44 22 47 30 23 23 200 MB DIV 47 59 52 35 28 -20 -19 -1 12 18 10 -19 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -16 -10 -4 -4 -4 2 9 1 -2 3 -6 LAND (KM) 536 566 639 725 733 815 972 1233 1489 1791 2146 1864 1455 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.6 111.0 112.4 115.4 118.6 122.2 125.7 129.4 133.2 137.2 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 16 18 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042019 FOUR 07/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 15.5% 15.4% 11.8% 0.0% 13.4% 13.4% 6.9% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.5% 5.7% 4.1% 0.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042019 FOUR 07/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##