* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042019 07/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 22 21 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 22 21 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 18 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 77 95 93 98 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 140 136 132 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 62 59 58 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 51 40 38 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 33 12 0 -16 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -3 -10 -12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 613 638 647 702 775 898 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.6 112.8 114.1 115.3 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 110.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##