* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042019 07/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 105 119 127 131 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 119 119 121 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 55 53 52 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 12 13 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -12 -6 -8 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 752 818 865 917 975 1102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.4 119.3 120.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 115.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042019 FOUR 07/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042019 FOUR 07/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##