* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052019 07/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 15 14 12 9 15 14 12 14 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 49 36 24 20 18 331 302 273 241 221 185 180 190 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.5 25.4 24.1 23.8 23.5 22.5 22.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 137 134 135 127 116 103 100 97 86 83 83 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 70 70 69 67 64 57 49 41 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 61 52 50 45 41 37 33 41 29 16 4 -14 -11 200 MB DIV 50 39 38 43 30 30 7 -7 -24 -9 -7 10 25 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 0 -3 1 4 3 7 11 13 LAND (KM) 1130 1070 1016 963 912 801 731 744 794 883 1011 1122 1216 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 6 4 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 116.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.16 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 12.1% 8.5% 4.8% 0.0% 9.9% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 3.3% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##