* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052019 07/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 15 16 11 14 9 3 8 10 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 15 15 7 345 334 316 281 266 224 155 156 152 130 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.5 23.4 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 132 124 115 105 96 95 88 82 83 84 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 71 69 67 64 57 53 47 44 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 10 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 32 36 36 32 31 3 -5 -25 -32 -30 -43 200 MB DIV 24 31 24 34 28 14 -16 -22 -16 -9 -9 -2 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -6 2 -1 0 3 4 8 11 LAND (KM) 1000 947 899 846 795 739 752 788 799 845 942 1048 1136 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.1 117.7 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.8 123.3 124.6 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 116.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.18 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.1% 6.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 FIVE 07/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##