* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032019 07/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 48 52 55 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 7 5 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 317 11 58 229 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.5 29.9 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 169 174 171 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 154 168 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 59 66 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -52 -2 56 80 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 0 4 62 83 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 0 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 70 78 190 173 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.1 28.3 30.0 31.6 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.4 79.8 79.2 78.7 76.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 17 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 60 44 71 63 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 27. 30. 31. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 79.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032019 THREE 07/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 21.9% 14.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 27.8% 14.6% 5.3% 2.2% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 16.7% 9.9% 5.0% 0.7% 1.3% 5.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032019 THREE 07/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032019 THREE 07/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 29 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 25 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT