* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052019 07/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 12 13 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 7 355 337 337 314 303 291 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.5 24.7 23.7 23.7 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 129 122 117 108 98 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 69 69 67 58 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 45 40 36 26 18 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 37 41 36 32 5 -11 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 936 896 846 809 777 769 837 862 903 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.0 117.2 117.5 117.7 118.5 119.7 120.8 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 116.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052019 FIVE 07/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 FIVE 07/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##