* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP052019 07/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 34 33 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 15 11 15 13 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 358 346 337 326 301 291 271 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 125 119 113 104 99 99 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 68 67 65 60 53 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 32 24 24 18 12 1 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 33 29 36 15 0 -34 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 -5 2 -1 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 923 890 860 843 831 858 900 933 992 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.4 117.7 118.1 118.5 119.4 120.5 121.8 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -23. -25. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 117.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052019 DALILA 07/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 DALILA 07/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##