* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP052019 07/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 13 14 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 -2 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 344 335 305 302 297 289 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 111 107 102 101 101 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 64 59 52 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 13 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 25 29 27 20 19 1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 31 9 0 -2 -7 1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 1 2 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 872 861 855 869 888 943 978 1043 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.4 118.8 119.3 119.8 121.0 122.2 123.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 118.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052019 DALILA 07/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052019 DALILA 07/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##