* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062019 07/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 48 53 56 57 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 48 53 56 57 55 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 40 43 45 44 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 1 4 6 3 8 9 10 11 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 0 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 311 298 313 269 250 194 252 223 251 234 257 223 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 149 152 148 139 143 142 135 133 128 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 60 58 54 52 52 50 50 48 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 13 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -9 1 6 17 16 9 15 10 5 -7 -17 -8 200 MB DIV -7 19 52 73 73 67 16 1 21 21 20 7 2 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 5 7 LAND (KM) 1967 2044 2127 2216 2309 2439 2208 1900 1645 1363 1084 816 563 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.9 127.2 128.7 130.1 132.5 134.9 137.7 140.0 142.6 145.2 147.7 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 15 13 12 13 13 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 12 14 19 12 8 33 19 7 7 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 25. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 124.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 SIX 07/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.90 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 27.3% 25.3% 19.2% 0.0% 23.2% 23.3% 20.2% Logistic: 11.5% 49.5% 30.8% 23.4% 2.5% 10.6% 1.2% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 26.2% 18.9% 14.2% 0.9% 11.3% 8.2% 7.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 SIX 07/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##