* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 49 54 62 68 70 72 69 65 60 55 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 49 54 62 68 70 72 69 65 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 52 60 67 71 70 65 59 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 2 1 3 1 6 6 6 8 11 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 4 -1 -7 -5 0 2 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 287 268 49 144 146 160 221 236 212 251 246 256 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 150 153 152 146 142 144 138 134 129 132 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 58 57 57 56 56 54 49 49 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 11 12 12 14 14 16 15 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -8 4 5 16 12 10 9 14 15 5 -7 -1 -7 200 MB DIV 7 30 75 66 70 28 11 26 49 38 5 -1 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -9 -9 -6 -2 -2 -3 -1 7 6 4 LAND (KM) 2051 2143 2242 2343 2434 2299 1992 1710 1422 1159 927 692 458 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.6 129.0 130.4 131.8 134.3 137.1 139.7 142.3 144.7 146.8 149.0 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 15 20 16 10 17 20 12 6 4 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 19. 27. 33. 35. 37. 34. 30. 25. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.8 126.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 42.9% 31.6% 22.6% 14.7% 33.1% 34.4% 25.4% Logistic: 37.6% 71.4% 59.0% 52.0% 9.9% 31.9% 6.8% 7.5% Bayesian: 4.1% 12.2% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 19.5% 42.2% 31.4% 25.5% 8.4% 21.8% 13.8% 10.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 17.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##