* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 58 64 65 64 59 51 46 42 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 52 58 64 65 64 59 51 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 49 56 61 60 56 49 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 2 2 4 8 10 10 18 22 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 5 1 -5 -5 -2 3 2 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 296 334 233 156 99 255 193 235 215 260 255 268 260 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.3 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 153 152 151 144 144 142 134 132 127 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 57 58 56 59 55 54 52 51 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 13 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 10 14 12 11 17 14 10 -3 -14 -17 -18 200 MB DIV 30 76 65 88 56 2 29 42 45 -13 -21 -33 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -9 -9 -7 -3 -2 -1 0 6 7 7 3 LAND (KM) 2135 2236 2340 2422 2443 2156 1859 1584 1321 1070 837 606 398 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.9 130.3 131.7 133.0 135.6 138.3 140.8 143.1 145.3 147.4 149.7 152.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 21 17 13 10 28 18 6 7 2 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 29. 30. 29. 24. 16. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 127.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.96 10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 51.1% 36.8% 25.4% 15.4% 34.3% 37.3% 22.4% Logistic: 47.3% 76.2% 68.1% 63.6% 14.6% 44.5% 8.4% 6.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 14.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 23.9% 47.4% 36.9% 30.4% 10.2% 26.5% 15.4% 9.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 15.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 12.0% 7.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##