* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 57 57 54 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 57 57 54 49 45 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 45 46 48 50 49 47 42 37 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 5 7 9 11 15 14 19 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 4 -2 -3 -1 1 4 5 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 251 249 180 220 254 189 233 256 271 243 253 258 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.7 27.4 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 145 146 144 141 136 131 139 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 57 58 63 55 53 52 53 53 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 16 17 16 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 8 0 -1 17 19 8 0 -5 -5 1 0 200 MB DIV 66 80 59 35 18 21 56 56 4 -8 -8 26 5 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 0 6 6 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 2396 2480 2390 2246 2102 1806 1508 1255 1004 761 545 339 220 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.6 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.3 139.0 141.7 144.0 146.2 148.5 150.9 153.5 156.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 12 11 12 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 12 11 12 20 18 10 8 3 9 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 17. 14. 9. 5. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.0 130.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.94 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 36.3% 29.2% 22.3% 14.3% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.4% 47.2% 37.3% 28.5% 3.6% 14.6% 4.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 10.7% 7.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 30.2% 22.9% 17.2% 6.0% 12.8% 1.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##