* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072019 07/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 43 50 56 63 70 71 72 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 43 50 56 63 70 71 72 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 51 52 52 52 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 3 2 8 10 9 9 11 15 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 6 7 1 7 3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 8 334 330 311 305 328 317 303 307 5 355 334 337 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.1 27.6 28.1 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 148 150 148 152 155 147 142 147 132 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 73 74 73 69 72 69 66 62 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 16 17 19 21 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 -6 0 9 14 1 18 25 10 -19 -12 -25 200 MB DIV 42 36 34 57 108 105 55 119 127 110 26 -2 5 700-850 TADV 4 6 2 0 0 -4 -6 -5 -5 -21 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 927 1010 1105 1219 1312 1470 1639 1782 1949 2126 2284 2296 1996 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 110.0 111.8 113.4 115.0 117.7 120.3 122.9 125.5 128.3 131.1 133.8 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 29 17 16 25 16 31 41 13 9 12 3 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 11. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 20. 26. 33. 40. 41. 42. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 108.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 SEVEN 07/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.84 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 26.5% 25.7% 19.8% 0.0% 23.9% 26.5% 43.4% Logistic: 5.9% 35.8% 24.7% 14.8% 5.2% 25.4% 20.8% 18.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 17.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 9.1% 3.2% Consensus: 6.6% 26.5% 18.3% 11.8% 1.8% 17.4% 18.8% 21.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 SEVEN 07/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##