* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 64 73 79 88 87 80 69 59 49 41 37 V (KT) LAND 50 58 64 73 79 88 87 80 69 59 49 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 67 72 81 85 81 72 62 54 46 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 3 4 11 11 16 22 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 0 -3 0 2 5 5 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 213 167 92 12 190 239 273 277 271 264 259 270 269 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 152 149 148 151 145 142 135 138 142 138 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 63 62 56 53 53 54 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 15 15 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 -2 -5 4 22 10 2 -7 -7 -7 4 6 200 MB DIV 93 89 58 19 17 31 68 28 -2 -10 3 13 33 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -5 -5 -3 -1 1 0 5 3 5 1 1 LAND (KM) 2554 2392 2231 2081 1931 1629 1326 1106 893 675 468 307 358 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 132.4 134.0 135.5 136.9 138.2 141.0 143.8 145.8 147.9 150.2 152.5 155.0 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 10 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 16 18 21 13 11 6 7 12 10 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 23. 29. 38. 37. 30. 19. 9. -1. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.6 132.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.98 18.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 11.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.4% 76.7% 71.0% 57.8% 47.9% 68.0% 58.7% 11.1% Logistic: 84.3% 91.9% 88.5% 88.4% 52.5% 71.9% 13.6% 4.5% Bayesian: 69.7% 68.9% 46.7% 38.6% 33.8% 6.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 68.1% 79.2% 68.7% 61.6% 44.7% 48.8% 24.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 20.0% 49.0% 34.0% 26.0% 18.0% 34.0% 22.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##