* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072019 07/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 53 65 73 77 83 84 83 81 78 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 53 65 73 77 83 84 83 81 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 71 76 80 80 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 6 3 6 5 6 13 20 13 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 5 7 0 0 0 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 349 2 3 17 31 3 323 306 341 10 353 332 332 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 150 151 148 152 155 150 144 142 136 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 74 74 74 73 69 71 67 61 62 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 21 21 24 26 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -1 9 21 19 11 26 13 2 -3 -8 -16 200 MB DIV 38 33 47 81 103 90 63 89 94 62 30 0 27 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -1 -1 -7 -10 -7 -9 -11 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 974 1069 1181 1270 1340 1504 1678 1820 1973 2142 2301 2132 1845 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.7 113.3 114.9 116.4 119.1 121.7 124.3 126.7 129.4 132.3 135.1 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 12 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 41 16 20 40 22 11 13 4 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 35. 43. 47. 53. 54. 53. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 SEVEN 07/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 34.1% 27.7% 21.1% 0.0% 26.0% 36.8% 43.8% Logistic: 16.4% 58.8% 41.8% 32.3% 12.4% 46.7% 34.0% 26.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 41.8% 22.4% 8.2% 0.9% 25.3% 21.1% 3.0% Consensus: 11.0% 44.9% 30.6% 20.5% 4.4% 32.7% 30.6% 24.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% 13.0% 20.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 SEVEN 07/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##