* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 69 77 83 88 94 91 82 68 57 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 60 69 77 83 88 94 91 82 68 57 47 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 69 77 83 87 90 86 79 70 60 50 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 3 3 4 5 11 13 21 27 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 -3 -5 1 4 9 5 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 128 101 277 251 241 258 268 278 251 255 262 271 270 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 148 148 147 144 138 134 141 141 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 63 65 58 53 53 52 49 48 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 16 17 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -1 2 18 24 7 0 -2 -6 0 0 0 200 MB DIV 86 66 34 32 39 57 56 -15 2 2 3 15 24 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 1 6 4 5 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 2419 2263 2108 1949 1790 1494 1234 1006 774 553 376 281 376 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 135.2 136.6 138.0 139.5 142.2 144.6 146.7 148.9 151.2 153.6 156.0 158.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 16 18 18 20 11 9 5 11 11 16 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 23. 28. 34. 31. 22. 8. -3. -13. -20. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.7 133.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.96 17.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 13.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 63.9% 77.0% 70.3% 66.3% 53.3% 58.8% 40.3% 9.9% Logistic: 75.5% 84.3% 77.1% 76.5% 41.4% 51.1% 14.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 76.9% 64.0% 39.5% 28.8% 23.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 72.1% 75.1% 62.3% 57.2% 39.5% 37.6% 18.3% 4.2% DTOPS: 55.0% 60.0% 47.0% 39.0% 32.0% 31.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##