* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 67 73 76 77 81 76 77 75 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 67 73 76 77 81 76 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 59 65 69 73 77 77 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 2 6 8 10 11 12 16 11 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -1 3 4 3 -3 2 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 17 12 319 318 318 320 338 5 12 351 340 308 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.7 26.8 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 150 149 151 153 152 144 142 143 134 135 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 73 71 71 70 65 62 58 57 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 20 20 24 22 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 10 18 24 12 17 25 24 9 14 7 13 200 MB DIV 34 55 62 77 78 74 102 52 73 50 25 23 28 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -3 -8 -9 -8 -3 -13 -8 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1094 1226 1294 1369 1456 1625 1769 1925 2084 2229 2210 1877 1558 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 114.0 115.7 117.1 118.5 121.0 123.6 126.3 128.6 131.3 134.4 137.4 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 13 12 13 12 12 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 36 32 14 16 32 30 12 13 9 9 19 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 14. 11. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 38. 41. 42. 46. 41. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.79 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 31.1% 27.7% 21.2% 13.8% 25.0% 36.5% 34.2% Logistic: 25.1% 67.0% 53.3% 42.8% 18.4% 36.2% 12.9% 7.4% Bayesian: 5.4% 57.1% 31.1% 12.0% 4.6% 38.1% 35.7% 1.0% Consensus: 15.3% 51.7% 37.3% 25.3% 12.3% 33.1% 28.4% 14.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 24.0% 17.0% 11.0% 5.0% 19.0% 22.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##