* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 79 81 77 72 61 51 42 34 33 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 79 81 77 72 61 51 42 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 74 74 72 69 62 53 45 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 6 5 8 12 12 19 27 33 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 0 8 8 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 139 240 245 259 264 292 294 274 250 254 260 260 272 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.6 27.8 27.3 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 144 146 145 142 139 135 140 143 137 140 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 63 61 53 53 51 49 48 49 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 20 18 19 16 14 12 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 13 33 37 22 8 2 -2 -2 3 7 10 200 MB DIV 63 43 55 50 49 73 28 17 0 15 14 36 35 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 2 9 5 8 7 5 2 LAND (KM) 2163 1998 1834 1680 1528 1262 1030 800 575 393 267 316 461 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.5 139.1 140.5 141.9 144.3 146.5 148.6 150.9 153.2 155.5 157.8 160.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 14 16 16 10 10 6 11 13 12 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 17. 12. 1. -9. -18. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.3 136.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.84 10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.2% 51.5% 43.6% 36.3% 28.5% 32.8% 21.5% 7.0% Logistic: 31.5% 56.3% 40.8% 37.8% 17.3% 13.2% 4.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 13.6% 30.3% 14.0% 6.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 24.8% 46.0% 32.8% 26.8% 16.0% 15.7% 8.8% 2.7% DTOPS: 41.0% 49.0% 34.0% 26.0% 21.0% 20.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##