* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 59 65 73 75 75 77 72 70 65 64 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 59 65 73 75 75 77 72 70 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 68 71 73 74 73 70 68 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 6 7 9 17 14 17 12 14 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 7 -1 1 -2 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 9 343 360 335 325 304 325 352 7 354 341 313 312 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.7 26.0 27.2 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 149 150 151 153 155 150 142 125 138 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 73 72 71 69 62 58 54 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 20 19 19 22 21 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -3 7 17 23 17 16 27 27 19 19 21 16 17 200 MB DIV 62 68 86 88 85 112 65 77 81 42 24 44 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -8 -9 -8 -8 -7 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1215 1287 1367 1449 1539 1683 1824 1986 2144 2321 2048 1714 1384 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.4 116.9 118.2 119.6 122.2 124.8 127.4 130.1 132.9 135.8 138.8 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 37 15 15 20 36 22 20 15 0 29 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 9. 8. 9. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 33. 35. 35. 37. 32. 30. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.5 113.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 55.8% 39.8% 29.8% 17.9% 48.0% 52.2% 34.7% Logistic: 30.3% 63.6% 53.0% 44.5% 17.6% 37.6% 16.9% 7.6% Bayesian: 22.7% 63.0% 45.6% 24.9% 9.8% 40.0% 23.6% 1.0% Consensus: 24.5% 60.8% 46.1% 33.1% 15.1% 41.9% 30.9% 14.4% DTOPS: 11.0% 37.0% 23.0% 15.0% 8.0% 19.0% 6.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##