* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 68 72 72 70 64 57 47 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 68 72 72 70 64 57 47 39 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 65 66 67 64 60 54 47 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 5 9 8 10 12 11 12 23 29 34 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -3 3 9 4 2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 107 259 278 275 288 295 297 259 259 258 262 259 263 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 145 143 142 136 136 141 140 137 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 64 61 58 54 52 52 52 51 53 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 23 22 21 20 19 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 29 31 35 17 3 -4 4 4 11 7 9 200 MB DIV 48 40 34 32 57 55 4 10 2 21 27 25 15 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 1 1 2 9 8 9 1 2 LAND (KM) 1985 1834 1683 1540 1397 1171 925 701 514 322 252 353 424 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.7 139.1 140.5 141.8 143.1 145.1 147.4 149.6 151.5 153.9 156.5 158.5 159.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 11 12 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 16 16 13 10 7 6 12 11 20 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -4. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 12. 12. 10. 4. -3. -13. -21. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.5 137.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.72 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 28.5% 27.1% 21.2% 13.9% 20.9% 16.5% 5.1% Logistic: 7.5% 24.2% 10.4% 7.8% 4.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 18.4% 12.7% 9.7% 6.2% 7.8% 5.9% 1.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 26.0% 12.0% 9.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##