* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 72 67 64 60 56 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 68 71 73 72 67 64 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 66 68 69 68 66 64 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 8 9 14 15 15 12 19 15 16 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 0 0 3 0 1 -1 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 344 347 353 340 343 298 319 359 360 346 341 316 312 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.2 27.2 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 150 151 151 155 151 145 137 127 138 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 73 72 71 67 61 57 54 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 20 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 19 11 15 20 28 33 10 15 5 8 8 200 MB DIV 64 77 84 96 104 117 87 78 18 9 7 -14 -6 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -8 -12 -11 -9 -15 -9 -8 -5 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 1294 1379 1473 1553 1641 1762 1894 2052 2190 2254 1934 1615 1330 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.9 118.2 119.6 120.9 123.5 125.9 128.5 131.1 133.9 136.8 139.7 142.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 15 16 21 28 32 18 18 10 5 25 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. 22. 19. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.60 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 44.8% 32.2% 23.1% 14.8% 39.0% 43.8% 11.4% Logistic: 17.3% 39.8% 27.6% 19.7% 7.1% 16.3% 8.0% 3.9% Bayesian: 18.3% 43.7% 34.4% 15.2% 3.6% 17.6% 8.6% 0.7% Consensus: 18.1% 42.7% 31.4% 19.4% 8.5% 24.3% 20.1% 5.3% DTOPS: 15.0% 39.0% 26.0% 20.0% 14.0% 20.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##