* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 77 81 87 84 81 80 73 69 61 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 77 81 87 84 81 80 73 69 61 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 69 73 78 82 84 82 77 72 65 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 10 6 13 14 17 14 11 10 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 8 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 20 359 360 343 325 313 352 1 356 330 323 305 304 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.6 25.9 27.0 26.4 25.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 153 155 150 142 124 135 129 123 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 71 69 63 58 54 51 51 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 21 25 24 25 28 26 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 13 8 8 20 28 23 16 21 9 11 11 200 MB DIV 78 83 76 87 117 92 81 44 28 19 38 0 11 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -10 -13 -10 -6 -11 -16 -6 0 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1397 1477 1565 1637 1701 1832 1978 2113 2277 2056 1759 1476 1215 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.9 122.2 124.8 127.3 130.0 132.8 135.6 138.3 140.9 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 22 27 37 22 20 17 0 24 3 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 7. 9. 12. 10. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 32. 29. 26. 25. 18. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.3 117.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 61.3% 45.8% 35.5% 25.0% 46.6% 32.5% 9.4% Logistic: 22.3% 50.8% 38.1% 30.8% 10.1% 19.4% 6.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 31.0% 59.7% 46.9% 30.6% 6.3% 25.5% 7.8% 0.0% Consensus: 24.5% 57.2% 43.6% 32.3% 13.8% 30.5% 15.4% 3.8% DTOPS: 36.0% 50.0% 41.0% 35.0% 27.0% 30.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##