* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 71 69 65 58 48 41 33 30 26 29 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 71 69 65 58 48 41 33 30 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 70 68 64 57 49 41 35 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 17 15 15 13 17 30 34 32 29 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 -2 4 8 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 256 270 287 303 309 287 256 264 259 256 255 269 264 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 142 136 136 144 141 137 138 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 57 56 54 56 56 54 53 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 21 21 20 18 15 13 10 10 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 32 21 8 -5 -5 -3 -5 -2 11 10 7 200 MB DIV 35 32 41 47 57 11 21 8 33 33 30 29 57 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -5 -5 -3 8 8 4 4 7 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1674 1533 1393 1271 1149 907 701 517 325 259 369 497 489 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 140.7 142.0 143.2 144.3 145.4 147.6 149.6 151.7 154.0 156.4 158.6 160.7 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 10 10 7 6 14 11 19 25 23 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -10. -15. -16. -18. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -12. -22. -29. -37. -40. -44. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.9 140.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 23.2% 15.3% 14.9% 9.8% 13.8% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 10.2% 3.5% 2.8% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 11.6% 6.3% 5.9% 4.4% 4.9% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 25.0% 8.0% 9.0% 15.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##