* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 76 84 85 82 75 72 65 61 54 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 76 84 85 82 75 72 65 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 69 75 78 78 75 71 64 59 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 7 11 13 19 17 13 14 17 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 8 2 -2 0 0 0 2 1 8 4 SHEAR DIR 6 359 348 347 331 344 348 2 343 311 314 297 286 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.4 27.8 26.4 26.7 26.6 26.1 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 156 150 144 130 133 131 126 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 70 71 68 61 54 52 50 53 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 22 23 25 25 26 25 27 26 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 11 9 21 33 33 24 35 24 29 38 47 200 MB DIV 87 84 80 92 106 55 48 15 20 26 6 0 -26 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -14 -12 -10 -9 -15 -9 -4 2 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 1507 1581 1664 1722 1785 1933 2079 2240 2126 1807 1523 1242 961 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.9 121.2 122.5 123.7 126.3 129.0 132.0 135.0 137.9 140.5 143.1 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 14 14 15 15 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 30 37 31 16 16 1 18 7 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 10. 8. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 29. 30. 27. 20. 17. 10. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 118.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.57 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 53.8% 38.1% 28.1% 15.7% 28.3% 21.6% 7.7% Logistic: 10.9% 31.1% 18.9% 13.8% 3.1% 5.7% 2.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 13.0% 36.1% 28.1% 15.7% 1.1% 5.3% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.2% 40.3% 28.4% 19.2% 6.6% 13.1% 8.2% 2.9% DTOPS: 28.0% 42.0% 29.0% 23.0% 18.0% 27.0% 6.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##