* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 105 103 97 85 68 54 42 37 31 30 27 V (KT) LAND 100 106 105 103 97 85 68 54 42 37 31 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 108 103 98 85 72 60 50 42 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 12 11 12 25 32 37 32 32 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 0 2 9 4 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 271 288 306 302 290 255 256 263 258 261 265 264 260 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 143 140 138 141 144 139 138 137 141 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 55 56 54 56 54 52 53 58 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 19 20 19 19 15 14 11 10 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 28 15 7 2 -2 -9 -8 4 7 13 5 200 MB DIV 46 43 52 38 23 37 9 24 33 48 41 69 50 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 1 6 13 4 5 8 6 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1515 1375 1236 1119 1003 779 583 411 267 310 453 507 563 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.5 144.7 145.8 146.8 149.0 151.0 153.2 155.6 157.7 159.7 161.6 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 11 11 8 11 14 14 28 20 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 11. 8. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -14. -17. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 5. 3. -3. -15. -32. -46. -58. -63. -69. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.2 142.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.43 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 21.4% 16.4% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 8.5% 6.3% 6.7% 5.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 10.1% 7.6% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 39.0% 14.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##