* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 70 74 77 82 81 77 73 66 59 54 49 V (KT) LAND 60 64 70 74 77 82 81 77 73 66 59 54 49 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 71 74 75 74 71 65 57 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 11 18 16 25 14 11 13 18 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 5 -1 1 -3 3 5 4 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 349 339 347 337 337 356 359 354 330 304 312 289 294 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.8 26.6 27.3 26.4 26.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 155 155 151 148 144 132 139 129 124 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 71 70 65 61 56 54 55 56 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 20 21 20 22 23 23 24 23 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 10 24 25 30 19 8 21 13 17 24 29 200 MB DIV 69 72 105 110 74 32 5 -2 10 16 -19 11 -12 700-850 TADV -8 -13 -13 -13 -11 -12 -13 -3 2 3 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1594 1680 1756 1809 1871 2025 2160 2317 1988 1680 1394 1124 857 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.8 14.6 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.5 123.8 125.1 127.7 130.3 133.2 136.3 139.1 141.7 144.2 146.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 30 38 29 20 19 17 4 29 2 0 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 17. 22. 21. 17. 13. 6. -1. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.1 119.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.49 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.1% 56.1% 38.1% 29.3% 20.5% 23.3% 18.0% 6.2% Logistic: 24.9% 38.5% 23.5% 18.0% 4.6% 4.3% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 26.0% 38.7% 23.8% 14.6% 2.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 26.0% 44.4% 28.5% 20.6% 9.1% 10.3% 6.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 15.0% 29.0% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 17.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##