* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 75 75 75 73 70 67 62 57 52 45 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 75 75 75 73 70 67 62 57 52 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 71 71 69 68 67 63 58 52 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 15 21 25 23 21 15 11 13 17 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 11 4 -4 -1 -2 0 4 3 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 330 339 335 346 353 353 352 334 308 288 311 289 292 SST (C) 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.8 27.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 155 153 149 146 143 133 136 128 129 131 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 68 65 59 58 57 59 58 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 19 21 22 22 22 22 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 23 21 14 19 1 7 1 9 10 19 8 200 MB DIV 72 95 102 66 25 42 9 14 43 8 -17 -13 -28 700-850 TADV -12 -17 -18 -12 -11 -13 -7 -3 -3 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1643 1704 1760 1826 1901 2055 2198 2233 1934 1618 1305 1022 760 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.5 125.8 128.3 131.2 134.1 136.8 139.7 142.6 145.2 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 35 35 23 17 18 14 13 24 1 2 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.2 120.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.16 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.5% 31.7% 25.9% 20.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% Logistic: 15.4% 19.0% 7.1% 5.4% 1.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 16.7% 20.9% 9.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.9% 23.9% 14.0% 9.8% 4.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% DTOPS: 21.0% 25.0% 13.0% 10.0% 9.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/30/19 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING