* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 111 105 96 78 60 44 35 30 28 26 22 V (KT) LAND 115 115 111 105 96 78 60 44 35 30 28 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 109 100 92 77 63 51 43 37 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 11 13 27 36 41 37 41 40 45 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 4 7 10 2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 303 306 276 254 237 252 261 259 260 263 261 258 256 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 139 139 144 143 139 138 144 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 51 53 55 53 51 52 55 54 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 18 16 13 11 9 8 8 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 16 10 0 4 1 -7 -5 0 4 6 2 16 200 MB DIV 76 52 37 23 30 30 31 38 36 36 59 59 57 700-850 TADV 0 4 10 11 13 8 10 7 6 5 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 1230 1115 1000 880 762 566 365 280 372 444 479 560 630 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.9 146.9 148.0 149.2 151.5 153.8 156.4 158.8 161.0 163.1 164.6 165.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 8 8 14 13 20 24 32 39 40 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -36. -41. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -16. -15. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -19. -21. -22. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -10. -19. -37. -55. -71. -80. -85. -87. -89. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.8 144.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 658.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##