* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 74 74 70 67 63 59 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 74 74 70 67 63 59 52 47 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 73 73 71 68 65 61 55 48 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 21 26 26 27 20 16 16 20 21 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 -3 -4 -3 -3 2 4 2 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 312 336 345 342 354 353 348 319 294 300 296 292 288 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 27.1 26.4 25.8 26.4 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 150 147 142 134 136 129 122 129 130 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 68 67 64 58 59 60 61 62 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 18 20 19 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 15 28 22 14 6 5 -7 0 -2 -6 -8 -3 -18 200 MB DIV 105 121 73 26 28 4 0 5 18 -15 0 -39 -9 700-850 TADV -15 -20 -13 -11 -12 -11 0 1 -6 0 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 1697 1743 1796 1866 1945 2083 2234 2095 1810 1517 1238 949 661 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.1 124.2 125.6 126.9 129.5 132.2 135.3 137.9 140.6 143.2 145.9 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 25 19 22 16 6 24 6 0 2 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 4. 0. -3. -7. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.6 122.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.7% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 15.6% 5.1% 3.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 18.2% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.0% 15.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 21.0% 15.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##