* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 100 93 85 68 53 41 33 30 29 26 26 V (KT) LAND 110 106 100 93 85 68 53 41 33 30 29 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 96 88 80 66 53 43 36 31 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 13 19 32 37 38 39 40 39 44 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 9 6 2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 282 268 246 227 235 258 261 259 263 266 265 266 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.3 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 139 140 145 140 139 137 144 148 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 53 55 54 56 52 55 55 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 19 17 14 13 11 8 8 9 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 0 2 4 -7 0 -4 -2 2 11 7 13 200 MB DIV 51 31 30 27 23 15 34 45 27 35 51 40 36 700-850 TADV 6 13 11 8 6 9 9 6 5 7 3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1130 1022 915 793 675 469 298 312 448 476 540 626 693 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.8 147.8 149.0 150.2 152.6 154.9 157.6 159.7 161.8 163.8 165.3 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 8 9 14 12 28 20 32 32 38 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -18. -25. -32. -37. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -17. -18. -17. -16. -16. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -21. -20. -21. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -25. -42. -57. -69. -77. -80. -81. -84. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.1 145.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 657.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##