* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 69 66 62 56 50 46 41 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 69 66 62 56 50 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 71 70 68 65 62 57 51 44 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 22 20 21 12 11 17 16 22 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 -2 -2 0 -2 3 4 2 6 6 5 6 SHEAR DIR 328 339 334 343 351 354 331 304 299 287 280 281 282 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 146 142 137 133 132 125 128 132 125 130 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 65 63 63 56 56 56 56 55 58 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 21 20 22 21 21 21 20 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 21 15 17 1 5 4 7 0 5 0 -2 200 MB DIV 114 73 37 27 20 -7 15 18 -10 -25 -9 -11 1 700-850 TADV -17 -12 -9 -16 -17 -1 0 -1 -5 0 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1758 1816 1880 1971 2047 2193 2189 1885 1577 1288 1016 750 483 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.0 126.2 127.6 128.9 131.6 134.4 137.2 140.0 142.7 145.3 147.8 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 21 20 21 16 10 12 14 0 1 8 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -14. -20. -24. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.3 123.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 8.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##