* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 92 85 78 63 51 39 33 32 28 26 24 V (KT) LAND 105 99 92 85 78 63 51 39 33 32 28 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 89 81 74 62 51 42 36 32 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 18 24 32 36 38 42 34 42 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 9 4 2 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 242 230 217 222 246 255 260 263 266 264 267 276 287 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 134 134 141 143 140 142 145 145 145 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 55 55 55 56 54 56 55 52 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 18 17 14 14 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 2 6 4 -2 1 -2 0 11 12 9 24 200 MB DIV 56 37 34 19 14 35 31 31 34 49 43 28 -4 700-850 TADV 7 9 7 5 6 12 10 6 6 7 3 5 1 LAND (KM) 1026 919 815 702 594 384 290 384 497 513 571 651 757 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 146.9 148.0 149.0 150.1 151.2 153.8 156.4 158.7 161.0 162.9 164.4 165.7 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 5 12 14 21 26 26 32 30 32 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -18. -19. -18. -17. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -42. -54. -66. -72. -73. -77. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 146.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 628.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##