* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 59 57 56 54 52 51 48 45 41 40 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 59 57 56 54 52 51 48 45 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 59 58 55 52 49 45 42 37 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 26 23 23 14 15 12 15 16 21 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -5 -3 -2 2 1 1 2 4 0 4 8 SHEAR DIR 339 334 348 356 356 339 323 283 283 274 286 276 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.8 27.2 26.6 26.1 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 144 144 141 133 137 131 125 130 129 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 64 63 63 61 57 56 56 56 57 62 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 21 21 22 21 21 22 21 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 9 13 2 -15 -2 7 3 -9 9 -7 -7 200 MB DIV 60 13 12 -4 -9 -3 -11 24 3 -14 -24 2 -7 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -14 -19 -14 -3 0 0 -5 1 3 4 2 LAND (KM) 1823 1896 1975 2047 2120 2293 2048 1734 1442 1173 908 642 381 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.4 127.6 129.0 130.3 133.0 135.7 138.6 141.3 143.8 146.3 148.8 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 16 16 6 25 5 0 7 4 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.7 125.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##